OSCAR PREDICTIONS

So it's a week and a half until another ludicrous and overblown Academy Awards ceremony (27th February), yet once again I find myself getting involved in all the nonsense and oddly excited by the whole thing. I'm not sure why this is. Generally I can't stand awards ceremonies - a bunch of pompous, over-paid, deluded individuals celebrating themselves at an event dictated by evil businessmen who give awards not based on talent but on what is 'right' for the industry at that time. No wonder Ricky Gervais felt the need to do this at the Golden Globes this year.

It doesn't help that there are the usual nonsensical omissions and bizarre decisions that the Academy love to make. This year the most notable ones are Christopher Nolan not being nominated for Best Director for Inception, which I can only imagine is because he has somehow offended the Academy voters, and Hailee Steinfield being nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category when she is clearly the lead character in the Coen Brothers True Grit.

Basically the Oscars is complete toss but I think it's because of its ridiculousness that I find them strangely fascinating. And like a typical film nerd, I also like to make my predictions as to who will win.

These predictions are below. I have put what I think should win and what I think will win:

(A list of all the contenders can be found here)

BEST FILM

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception - should

The Kids Are Alright

The King's Speech - will

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan

Joel Coen, Ethan Coen - True Grit

David Fincher - The Social Network - should and will

Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

David O. Russell - The Fighter

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem - Biutiful

Jeff Bridges - True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network

Colin Firth - The King's Speech - should and will

James Franco - 127 Hours

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening - The Kids Are Alright

Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman - Black Swan - should and will

Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale - The Fighter - should

John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner - The Town

Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are Alright

Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech - will

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams - The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech - will

Melissa Leo - The Fighter

Hailee Steinfield - True Grit - should

Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Another Year - Mike Leigh

The Fighter - Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington

Inception - Christopher Nolan - should

The Kids Are Alright - Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg

The King's Speech - David Seidler - will

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

127 Hours - Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy

The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin - should and will

Toy Story 3 - Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich

True Grit - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Winter's Bone - Debra Granik, Anne Rossellini

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black Swan - Matthew Libatique

Inception - Wally Pfister

The King's Speech - Danny Cohen

The Social Network - Jeff Cronenweth

True Grit - Roger Deakins - should and will

BEST EDITING

127 Hours - Jon Harris

Black Swan - Andrew Weisblum - should

The Fighter - Pamela Martin

The King's Speech - Tariq Anwar

The Social Network - Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall - will

BEST ORIGINAL SOUNDTRACK

127 Hours - A.R. Rahman

How To Train Your Dragon - John Powell

Inception - Hans Zimmer - should

The King's Speech - Alexandre Desplat - will

The Social Network - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

BEST ANIMATED FILM

How To Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3 - should and will

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Biutiful (Mexico)

Dogtooth (Greece)

Civilization (Denmark)

Incendies (Canada)

Outside The Law (Algeria)

...um... I've only seen Dogtooth but Biutiful probably will.

Chris Nolan - "The Academy sucks big asses."

TRUE GRIT review

The Coens go straight.

Have the Coen Brothers ever made a perfect film? Fargo and No Country For Old Men come pretty close. Either way, there is no doubting their brilliance. They are unique and prolific and even there minor works (like 2009's A Serious Man) better most mainstream Hollywood films thanks to their assembly line of quirky characters, sharp scripts and surreal sense of humour.

True Grit feels like an attempt for perfection and for the first half at least, it reaches those heights. It is a film that shows the Coens at their most confident and restrained. It is, for the most part, a straightforward modern Western. Their films have often experimented with Western genre conventions (strange loners roaming wide open landscapes) and No Country For Old Men is a Western of sorts, albeit one set in the 1980s. So it makes sense that they have made a out-and-out Western featuring Cowboys, Indians... and a man in a bear suit.

I should say first-off that I haven't read the novel by Charles Portis or seen the original True Grit (1969) (for which John Wayne won his only Oscar). So seeing this not-really-a-remake-but-more-of-a-reinterpretation-of-the-original-source is the first time I have experienced the story. In the Coens hands, the story is simple but effective and relies on three terrific performances to carry it forward. Jeff Bridges is superb as the grouchy, gravelly voiced, whisky guzzling U.S. Marshall, Rooster Cogburn, and Matt Damon continues to impress in his role as the Texas Ranger, LaBoeuf - an arrogant cowboy complete with spurs and other cowboy accessories. Both of these established actors are given a run for their money though by newcomer Hailee Steinfield in an eye-opening debut lead role as Mattie Ross - a determined and wise-beyond-her-years 14 year-old who can out-talk anyone three times her age (one of the best and funniest scenes involves her bartering with an old businessman and winning convincingly).

Mattie is out for revenge. Her father was murdered by an outlaw, Tom Chaney (Josh Brolin), and she has recruited Cogburn to help her find him and bring him to justice. LaBoeuf is also after Chaney but for different reasons. The three reluctantly team up and begin the long search for a man who could be anywhere in the remote forests and deserts. A revenge story though it is, True Grit ultimately is about bigger things - friendship, loyalty, survival and death. The way that Bridges, Damon and Steinfield play off each other is a joy to watch. There are moments of tension, humour and tenderness between them. They all go through their own journey and discover something about themselves, leading to a poignant, emotional ending.

True Grit never looks anything less that beautiful thanks to Roger Deakins cinematography. This isn't the old West bathed in sun, heat and sand, but one that is cold, snowy and foreboding. Deakins partnership with the Coens has lead to some of the best looking films of recent memory. Someone give him the Oscar now please. Speaking of Oscars, why Steinfield has been nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category and not the lead actress one is beyond me. She practically carries the film and if anything is the lead character. Mattie is the one with true grit and Cogburn and LeBoeuf are humbled by her intelligence and maturity. Unlike a lot of the Coen Brothers work, it is a film with real heart, and that heart comes from the Mattie character.

I really enjoyed True Grit, even loved parts of it, but there are a couple of reasons why I think it falls short of perfection. The first is the same problem I had with No Country For Old Men in that quite often the dialogue was incomprehensible. It might just be my rubbish ears but sometimes what Jeff Bridges says, as brilliant though he is, just comes out as a mumbling noise. It's a shame as the script is brilliant and very funny. I also felt that Brolin was underused, and therefore his character underdeveloped, in a third act which simply doesn't live up to the rest of the film. That said, the ending is marvellous - the sight of Cogburn and Mattie riding under the stars will stay with you.

The Coen's make film-making seem effortless and True Grit is a welcome addition to their hard-to-beat back catalogue. It is possibly their most focussed and disciplined work but I don't believe it to be their best. That may yet be to come.

4 / 5

THE FIGHTER review

"Anything that we want to go from just a beginner to a pro, you need a montage..."

The trailers for The Fighter are of the kind which wrap the film up in Hollywood cheese and convention and ultimately undersell the film. That is to say that it isn't just another sports movie about a guy overcoming his struggles to eventually win 'the big fight'. Well, it is that, but it is also more.

Mention 'sports movie', or more specifically 'boxing movie', to most people and they will expect an uplifting and triumphant underdog story that ends with underdog turning into a winning hero. The Fighter, based on a true story, unashamedly delivers on this count and is never anything less than hugely enjoyable. Hell, it even has time for that old chestnut; the sports montage. Thankfully though, director David O. Russell (responsible for the brilliant Three Kings and a few other less successful projects) tries to do as much as he can within the confines of this sub-genre to help it rise above cliché. For the first hour or so, there is very little fighting in the boxing sense. Moreover, it turns out, this is a film about family.

And what a family this is. Mark Wahlberg is underachieving boxer "Irish" Mickey Ward, his brother is former-boxer-now-crack head Dickie (a live-wire Christian Bale), their mother is the chain-smoking, delusional Alice (Melissa Leo) and their 7 (!) sisters are owners of the most shocking haircuts in movie history. Mickey's real battle is not in the ring but in the home with his difficult and over-powering family. He clearly has talent but with his mum as his manager and his brother as his trainer, he might not be fully realising his potential. Things change when Mickey starts seeing feisty barmaid Charlene (Amy Adams playing against type) who helps him to stand up for himself. The majority of the film is about family loyalty versus loyalty to yourself and your potential. Can he resolve this problem in time for 'the big fight'? What do you think?

The Fighter is predictable but well made. The director doesn't settle for Ron Howard style blandness (see Cinderella Man) and instead seems eager to create interesting shots from familiar situations (the fight scenes are filmed to look like television footage and, as such, are refreshing and effective). He also has a good sense of place - you can almost feel the Boston heat in the cinema.

The film's success though is largely down to the performances, which are universally excellent. Bale is on fire as crack head Dickie and, with his gaunt frame and crazy eyes, is a mesmerising presence. The film suffers slightly whenever he is not on screen. I always believe in Bale as the characters he plays in his films - as Patrick Bateman in American Psycho, Trevor Reznik in The Machinist, Brucy Wayne in the Batman films. He is an old-fashioned method actor and, whatever you make think of him in real life, is never anything less that fascinating when on screen. The Oscar for Best Supporting Actor is surely in the bag for this role. Leo and Adams are also excellent, especially the former, whose work I am unfamiliar with (she is apparently excellent in Frozen River, which I have yet to see). I wouldn't be surprised if an Oscar goes her way as well.

In the midst of all this is beefed-up Mark Wahlberg; an actor who I have never really rated but who of late I am warming to (he was the best thing in last year's slightly disappointing The Other Guys). I'm not sure his choice of films have been wise over the years (The Happening, Max Payne - terrible) but he is perfect for his role in The Fighter (one which he has apparently been preparing for for years). He is the complete opposite of Bale; calm, introspective, full of simmering emotion. The picture would probably fall apart if he was less controlled. He is an actor who, like Mickey in the ring, doesn't appear to do much, but at the end; Bang! He's got you.

The Fighter, as good as it is, ultimately is not destined to be a classic like Raging Bull and doesn't pack the emotional punch (ahem) of, say, The Wrestler. But it is way better than I thought it would be and better than the rubbish trailers make it out to be. I will surprised if it comes away with any Oscars outside of the acting categories (it's nominated for 7 overall) but that shouldn't put anyone off seeing it. Worth it just for Bale anyway.

3½ / 5